Commentary


The crackdown on dissent   Recently updated !

Suppression of criticism and dissent is a hallmark of tyranny. Two egregious instances have been in the news lately. One is the FCC’s call on eight TV stations, all owned by ABC, to seek early broadcast license renewal. The official reason is possible illegal discrimination, but everyone has noticed that it followed on Jimmy Kimmel making a joke about Melania Trump which Donald didn’t like.

The other is still worse. It’s the second indictment of James Comey on fabricated charges of threatening Donald Trump’s life.

These aren’t the only cases; Trump has shown a consistent pattern of going after critics with legal threats, frivolous lawsuits, and behind-the-scenes pressure. For this piece, I’ll focus on the Comey indictment.

Comey took a picture of some seashells arranged to spell “86 47” and added the caption “Cool shell formation on my beach walk.” To “86” someone has long been slang for expelling or banishing someone. Many people use “86 47” as a short way to call for Trump’s removal from office. It’s used in restaurants to mean denying someone, such as a drunk, service. It’s the source of “Agent 86” in the TV spy comedy Get Smart. Maybe some people use it as a code for murder, but it’s not a common use.

Screenshot of Amazon page showing various "86 46" merchandiseIn any case, Comey didn’t arrange the shells himself; he just found them and posted a picture of them. There’s no way to interpret it as a threat. Amazon has lots of “8646” merchandise, calling for Biden’s removal as the 46th president. Several of the offerings clarify they’re calling for impeachment. There can’t be much of a current market for those items, but the people offering them haven’t gotten around to taking them down. None of them, as far as I know, have been prosecuted for offering the stuff.

A New York Post article reports that in 2025, FBI director Kash Patel took resources off child sex crimes and terrorism to “investigate” legal uses of “8647” protesting against Trump. Not only is he using the FBI to harass legitimate protesters, he’s ignoring dangerous people to do it. Congress should be 86-ing Patel, the worst FBI director since J. Edgar Hoover.

I’m sure Trump and Patel know there’s no hope of getting a conviction, and the case will probably be dismissed on the first day. The goal isn’t to lock Comey up but to scare everyone who criticizes Trump. And so I must declare: 8647. Or better yet: 86*.


Imprimis sinks into the mud   Recently updated !

For many years and through many address changes, Hillsdale College has regularly sent me its print newsletter, Imprimis, for free. I sometimes look at it. It’s been known to have good articles. The lead piece in the March/April 2026 issue, though, has me inclined to put each one straight into recycling.

The piece in question, by Edward J. Erler, is titled “Are We Subjects or Citizens? Birthright Citizenship and the Constitution.” It says, “Many believe that this policy is an explicit command of the Constitution, consistent with the British common law system. But this is simply not true.”

Already the presentation is suspicious. The birthright citizenship clause is a declaration of who is a citizen, not a command. It isn’t about British common law.

A little further, he claims that “the idea of birthright citizenship … is derived from feudal law. It is the relation of master and servant…” That’s complete nonsense. The main goal of the Constitutional clause in question was to affirm that former slaves born in the United States have the rights of citizenship. In other words, to destroy the involuntary relation of master and servant.

The article tries to portray citizenship as an obligation bound on people, a form of serfdom. It does come with obligations, but on balance, it’s a benefit which people want to keep. It lets a person vote (subject to other requirements, such as age). It gives stronger protection under the law. It’s supposed to make a person immune from deportation, though lately this hasn’t always been observed.

Erler goes through various dodges, citing irrelevant history. He argues that jurisdiction “connoted ‘complete jurisdiction’ — in other words, not owing allegiance to anyone else.” If someone born in the US claims citizenship in another country on the basis of their parents, it seems reasonable at least to question their US citizenship. But in most cases, we’re talking about people who have lived in the US since their birth and don’t think of themselves as citizens of any other country. Foreign diplomats are an often-mentioned exception; they aren’t subject to US jurisdiction, and their children normally aren’t considered citizens. He’s not talking about dual citizenship or diplomatic immunity, though, but setting up a spurious claim about allegiance.

He declares that “‘subject to the jurisdiction’ does not simply mean, as is commonly thought, subject to American laws or American courts. It means owing exclusive political allegiance to the U.S.” If it’s “commonly thought” that jurisdiction means the sphere in which laws may be enforced and courts may act, that’s because because it does.

The implications of Erler’s doctrine are frightening. Citizenship would no longer be guaranteed by the Constitution to any American; it would depend on our attitudes as perceived by the government. If “allegiance” is a precondition of citizenship, then even people descended from the Pilgrims could have it revoked if the government calls their allegiance in doubt. For all I can tell, refusing to recite the Pledge to the Flag might be deemed enough to establish lack of allegiance. The title’s significance now becomes clear; Erler is saying we’re subjects, required to give fealty to the government.

It’s the same game as “creation science” or Holocaust denial. The aim is to create the impression of a two-sided question where there isn’t one, to make people think there’s a controversy over whether “jurisdiction” means jurisdiction or something else.

Not all arguments against birthright citizenship are dishonest on their face, even though I don’t think they’re valid. For instance, someone could argue that many countries have citizenship by parentage rather than place of birth and their claim takes precedence. My understanding is that if people born in the US don’t go to their parents’ homeland and don’t ask for citizenship, they’re US citizens and not subject to the rule of their parents’ country. The US took this position in the War of 1812.

Any publication will have articles I disagree with and even some I consider stupid. Pretending that denying people citizenship is saving them from serfdom, though, is absurd. A publication that claims to have editorial principles but features dishonest articles on its front page doesn’t get my respect.


25th Amendment 101

A lot of people on the left are engaging in magical thinking. They claim that the 25th Amendment of the US Constitution can somehow be used to remove Trump from power. It can’t. It shouldn’t be hard to understand. The relevant text is Section 4 of the amendment:

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

 
Thereafter, when the President transmits to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives his written declaration that no inability exists, he shall resume the powers and duties of his office unless the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive department or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit within four days to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office. Thereupon Congress shall decide the issue, assembling within forty-eight hours for that purpose if not in session. If the Congress, within twenty-one days after receipt of the latter written declaration, or, if Congress is not in session, within twenty-one days after Congress is required to assemble, determines by two-thirds vote of both Houses that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall continue to discharge the same as Acting President; otherwise, the President shall resume the powers and duties of his office.

Action under this provision requires action by the vice president. By James David Vance. By Trump’s puppet. He isn’t going to do it. Perhaps he’d like to stage a coup, but Trump’s base would turn furiously against him if he tried. Besides, the other requirements would keep him from making it stick.

In addition to the VP, the provision requires the action of a majority of the Cabinet or of “such other body as Congress may by law provide.” Some people in Congress are trying to create such a body, but Trump would veto the bill. They’d need 2/3 of both houses to make it a law. Not going to happen. Nor is the Cabinet, which consists of Trump loyalists, going to turn against him.

But suppose alien mind control beams make Vance and the Cabinet agree to declare Trump unable to discharge his powers and duties. All Trump has to do is say, “I am able,” and he’s back in power until Congress resolves the issue. To make the removal of his powers stick, a 2/3 vote of both houses is necessary. Not going to happen.

I’m excluding hypothetical cases where Trump goes into a coma and can’t do anything. That’s what the 25th Amendment was designed for.

Impeachment is a lower bar. It requires a majority of the House and 2/3 of the Senate. That’s still extremely unlikely, but it’s not as improbable as the 25th Amendment path.

If facts matter anymore, the case for impeachment is stronger than the case for declaring him incapable of doing the job. Has Trump committed “high crimes and misdemeanors”? Tons of them. Is he incapable of carrying out his duties? That rests on a claim that he’s clinically insane, which is more open to dispute.

The Democrats in Congress can read the Constitution, or at least they have staff members to explain it to them. They know all this. So why are they pursuing an impossible path? I think it’s to divert attention from Congress’s failure to impeach Trump. They can pretend they’re doing something, knowing that Vance will protect them against any action actually happening. They can say, “Hey, we tried,” knowing full well they didn’t.

What about all the people on Bluesky who don’t have public images to manipulate? That’s easy, too. They’re stupid. In the Bonhoeffer sense, that is.


Don’t inoculate people against reason

I’ve been reading about a psychological notion called “inoculation theory.” The idea is that just as people can gain immunity to a disease by being exposed to a weakened pathogen, they may develop resistance to a point of view as a result of hearing weak arguments for it. Most discussions of the idea that I’ve seen focus on doing this intentionally, but it also works when people hear bad attempts to convince them.

Suppose there’s some position for which you’ve heard only ridiculous arguments. After a while, you’ll stop paying attention to any arguments for it, even if one of them actually presents a good case. If someone claims to have solid evidence that 9/11 was an inside job, Trump won the 2020 election, or the Moon landings were faked, are you going to spend much time listening? Probably not. Usually that’s a rational response; if there were good arguments for these claims, you’d have heard them before. But if you get all your information from your social media bubble, genuinely good arguments can be drowned out by the ridiculous ones. People love to repost bad arguments to expose them to ridicule. Others repost whatever favors their cause without verifying it, and readers stop paying attention.

A bad argument can be worse than silence. In a well-known story, the townspeople are “inoculated” against the boy’s cries of “Wolf!” When you offer weak or invalid claims to a skeptical audience, they’ll assume you have nothing better to offer.

Returning, inevitably, to Donald Trump, I’d like to give two examples I’ve often seen. One is the claim that he’s a “pedophile.” While there have been accusations, he hasn’t been charged with a crime, and I haven’t seen strong supporting evidence. If that’s the worst you can say about him, you’ll only convince his supporters that you don’t have a good case against him.

A second example is the statement that’s he’s a “felon.” He has been convicted of a felony, but it’s not one that gets most people excited. He didn’t report hush money as a campaign expense. It isn’t obvious to non-lawyers and non-accountants that he was required to, and some lawyers without an axe to grind have called the case dubious. These two claims are far weaker than the undisputed facts that he ordered civilian boats sunk without a legal process, started a war, pardoned everyone who broke into the Capitol to support his election claim, and threatened to destroy a civilization.

It’s also possible to inoculate people against words and concepts. Some people toss “Communist!” around as an all-purpose comeback; others use “Racist!” After a while, listeners treat the words as noise, whether they apply or not.

Some people say that more arguments are always better. They aren’t, if the arguments are weak. People have limits on their attention span and patience. If you strain both, you lose your audience, and you’ll have a hard time getting it back.

Update: I just found another good article on this issue: “The paradox of argument strength” in Nature.


The apocalyptic mindset 3

It’s hard for me to understand the popularity of authoritarian movements. Why would people willingly cede power to someone whose overriding goal is power? Yet it’s happened over and over. Lately I’ve been looking at comments on the Internet and seeing a strong pattern. They see the world as facing an apocalyptic battle between two utterly opposed forces. Their side is good, and anyone who opposes it must be evil. Not only that, their opponents are all on the same side. It’s hard to think of immigrants, Constitutional lawyers, liberals (in all the senses of the word), Muslims, socialists, and the Pope all as a unified front, but to orthodox MAGAs they are.

Evangelical Christianity, which is the heart of Trump’s support, loves the idea that history is a struggle between Satanic and divine forces, and they expect it to culminate in a world war which God, of course, will win. It colors people’s worldview even when they aren’t thinking of supernatural forces. It’s their habit to think of political conflicts as fights between two fully consistent and completely opposed forces. It’s a view that doesn’t leave much room for good people who disagree, honestly mistaken ideas, and people who aren’t wholly on one side or the other.

When you accept this view, it’s reasonable to think anyone on your side is completely trustworthy, anyone opposed is a thorough liar, and anything which supports your side must be right. Anything your side does is good, including threatening to destroy a civilization. It helps if the civilization to be destroyed is aligned with a non-Christian religion.

In praying to God from the Pentagon, “Secretary of War” Hegseth raged: “Let every round find its mark against the enemies of righteousness and our great nation. Give them wisdom in every decision, endurance for the trial ahead, unbreakable unity, and overwhelming violence of action against those who deserve no mercy.”

Jackson Lahmeyer, a Trump-aligned candidate from Oklahoma who is also an Evangelical pastor, proclaimed, “Good and evil, that’s the story of the Bible. The good news is that at the end good always wins.” Look at chapter 16 of Revelation, if you have the stomach for it. Angels spread skin disease, pollute the seas and fresh water, cause deadly heat waves, and dry up a major river. They’re allegedly working for God, so this makes them “good.”

The Crusades were run on the same mindset. Armies set out to take Jerusalem and the surrounding area because “God wills it!” When the Crusaders took the city in 1099, they massacred thousands of people, mostly Muslims and Jews. They considered their own side “good” not because of their character or deeds, but because they claimed to be on God’s side. They could cite Biblical precedents, such as the genocide of the Canaanites.

Communicating with people who look at the world that way is hard. By the very fact of disagreeing with them, you’re on the side of “evil.” The important thing is to reject their worldview vocally and persistently.