statistics

Use the right statistic

This entry was posted in Commentary Writing and tagged statistics writing on by

Mark Twain talked about “lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Lying with statistics isn’t always intentional; sometimes a writer doesn’t understand their meaning or applicability.

Recently I saw a news article on the COVID-19 infection rate in northern New Hampshire. It reported a higher positivity rate than in previous weeks. That doesn’t tell us anything about whether infections are increasing or decreasing, though. If the positivity rate goes up, it could mean one of several things:

  1. More people are infected.
  2. More of the people who are infected are getting tested.
  3. Fewer people who aren’t infected are getting tested.

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Avoiding statistical fallacies in writing 2

This entry was posted in Techniques Writing and tagged statistics writing on by

Sorry it’s been so long since my last post. I’ve moved, and my cat Carl died.

I’ve noticed a lot of bad treatment of statistics on the Web, especially in connection with the COVID epidemic and vaccines. Sometimes writers make big errors even when trying to correct other people’s mistakes. It’s a huge and difficult subject, so I’ll approach it by linking to some good articles and commenting briefly on each one. It takes time to digest all the information, so you might want to bookmark some of the pieces you find interesting and come back to them later.
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COVID-19 and curve flattening for writers 1

This entry was posted in Writer ethics Writing and tagged coronavirus COVID-19 mathematics pandemic statistics on by

When we write about issues related to COVID-19 and other major health risks, we carry a serious responsibility. Most of us aren’t medical professionals or specialists in biological sciences, but we have to get as much right as we can. Giving false reassurances and spreading panic are both harmful. Advising ineffective or dangerous preventive methods is still worse.

When we write for hire, we present our clients’ opinions, not necessarily our own, but that doesn’t let us off the hook. A pandemic is too serious to spin and make excuses about it. If a client wants you to give out inaccurate information, please decline the assignment.

But anyone can give that advice. I’d like to talk here about a couple of technical issues that writers need to understand. The projected spread of the disease is a matter of statistics. You’ve seen a lot of advice urging us to “flatten the curve.” What does this mean, and why do we want to flatten it? You’ve also seen that the number of cases is growing exponentially. That’s true, but most people don’t clearly understand what it means.
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