When we write about issues related to COVID-19 and other major health risks, we carry a serious responsibility. Most of us aren’t medical professionals or specialists in biological sciences, but we have to get as much right as we can. Giving false reassurances and spreading panic are both harmful. Advising ineffective or dangerous preventive methods is still worse.
When we write for hire, we present our clients’ opinions, not necessarily our own, but that doesn’t let us off the hook. A pandemic is too serious to spin and make excuses about it. If a client wants you to give out inaccurate information, please decline the assignment.
But anyone can give that advice. I’d like to talk here about a couple of technical issues that writers need to understand. The projected spread of the disease is a matter of statistics. You’ve seen a lot of advice urging us to “flatten the curve.” What does this mean, and why do we want to flatten it? You’ve also seen that the number of cases is growing exponentially. That’s true, but most people don’t clearly understand what it means.
If you can explain those two concepts, you have a more solid grounding for what you write.
Exponential growth
An exponential growth curve refers to a mathematical pattern. A quantity that increases exponentially over time is proportional to a base number raised to the time since a zero point. If we choose 10 for the base, this is written as 10t, where t is the time since the starting point.
The rate of growth of an exponential function at any time (or other x value) is proportional to the value of the function. If the value doubles, the rate of growth doubles. Growth starts slowly, but as the value increases, it grows faster and faster.
The rate of COVID-19 infection is expected to follow an exponential curve in the short term. As more people have the disease, more people will catch it from them. The purpose of social isolation is to break this curve, or at least to lower the proportionality factor. Eventually something will change; in the worst case, everyone will catch the disease, and those who survive will have immunity. There may be a vaccine, though it’s unlikely to come this year. Changes in weather may disrupt the spread of the illness. But until some such factor becomes significant, the infection rate will stay close to an exponential curve.
You may have heard people say that something is “exponentially greater” than something else. That’s a meaningless expression. You can fit any two positive numbers on an exponential curve. That doesn’t mean they’re related by an exponential function.
Flattening the curve
If nothing else intervenes, eventually most of the people susceptible to the virus will catch it, and most of them will recover. They’ll have immunity, though it isn’t known yet how long it will last. As the immune portion of the population grows, an exponential curve will no longer apply. The number of new cases will reach a peak and then decline. The question is how high the peak is. If it’s huge, there won’t be enough doctors and facilities to treat everyone. Social isolation efforts aim at reducing the peak value by decreasing the rate of growth. The facilities won’t be as overwhelmed. There will be time to make more ventilators. Fewer people will die from inadequate treatment.
This doesn’t necessarily mean fewer people will get sick. It means they won’t all get sick at once. The counter-intuitive part is that the epidemic may actually last longer as a result. It won’t burn itself out as quickly. But fewer people will be incapacitated at once, so the impact won’t be as great.
Getting people to understand this is a difficult task for a writer. If it’s expressed badly, people could start saying, “This is only going to make it last longer?!” Explaining the curves in a way that will inform and motivate people will require some careful phrasing.
Links
An article discussing these difficult concepts should have good links, so that people can see a more detailed or understandable explanation. Here are a few you might want to use in an article:
Thanks, Gary. I posted a link to this article to the Denver Mad Scientists Club mailing list.
I also mentioned your songbook.