research


They’ve got little lists, and little research

You’ve seen those articles, maybe while trying to look something up. Lists of obscure and remarkable facts. “The strangest vehicles ever made.” “Ten ridiculous laws that are still on the books.” “Eight things you didn’t know about broccoli.” These “listicles,” as the little lists are often called, can be entertaining, but as a rule they’re unreliable information sources. Most are written by freelancers without in-depth knowledge. They repeat popular myths and lack citations. They’re the modern-day descendants of Ripley’s Believe It or Not.

This type of article is easy to skim, and readers who see one with a remarkable claim are apt to share it. This makes it good material for filling out blogs that exist to attract attention to a website. I’ve written some myself and made a strong commitment to getting the facts right. Other writers are more concerned with finishing the piece fast so they can collect their fee and move on to the next assignment. Unless a piece is by an author with relevant expertise or at least on a site that avoids fluff, you shouldn’t treat it as a reliable source.
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Coping with Chinese disinformation 1

When researching and writing material about China, you have to be aware of the Chinese government’s disinformation efforts. People who speak out against it are apt to be the targets of systematic insults and character assassination. If you’re operating on a small level, you probably won’t be bothered. Even though my articles on boycotting the Chengdu Worldcon did well in the search engines, I’ve received only one clear threat with a Chinese connection.

CNN has reported on “the world’s largest known online disinformation operation”:

The Chinese government has built up the world’s largest known online disinformation operation and is using it to harass US residents, politicians, and businesses—at times threatening its targets with violence. …

The onslaught of attacks – often of a vile and deeply personal nature – is part of a well-organized, increasingly brazen Chinese government intimidation campaign targeting people in the United States, documents show.

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Six blunders to avoid when writing about computers 1

Computers are everywhere, yet writers of scripts for movies and TV constantly get them wrong. Ludicrously wrong. Good written fiction, especially science fiction, does better, but writers of all kinds need to be careful. You can depart from the real world if you like, but you have to know what you’re doing. Make sure the reader knows it’s intentional.

Here are six ways writers can mess up. Not all of them are completely impossible, but if you use any of them, you at least need to make the scenario plausible.
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Dissecting clickbait stories

When you report or comment on a news story, the first step is to understand what it says. Low-quality websites have ways of appearing to say more than they do. They aim to create a panic and attract links. A careful reading may show there isn’t much substance to what happened.

Let’s look at a Daily Mail article claiming that an application called “New Profile Pic” “hoovers up your details.” A careful reading shows that doesn’t mean much.
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Spotting fake videos 1

Writing about the Russian invasion of Ukraine means taking arms against a sea of misinformation. The Russian government is lying on an astonishing scale, but we can’t always trust information from the Ukrainian side either. In war, there’s always a tendency to paint the enemy in the worst light possible, and sometimes that includes making up facts. In the modern era, it includes faking videos.

Distinguishing authentic videos, which present what they claim they do, from fakes isn’t easy. These are some of the fakers’ tricks:
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Search engine tricks for researchers

On several occasions, when I’ve researched a topic that has just hit the news, search engines have shown me nothing but news articles on commentary on that event. Usually it’s 20 versions of the same syndicated article. Finding background information becomes nearly impossible. Google’s weighting heavily favors recently added or changed pages.

Fortunately, if you know Google’s options well, there are ways to get around this. They also work with Startpage, which is an independent privacy-protecting front end to Google. I recommend Startpage, if only to avoid Google’s diddling with your search results based on what it knows about you. Startpage recently dropped its advanced search page, but you can still do everything it let you do.
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The black swan fallacy

A while ago I ran into a report of an alleged side effect of the COVID-19 vaccine. It was a “this happened to my cousin” story, so it’s low on credibility. Some news outlets, though, claimed it couldn’t be true because there was no previous report of this effect.

That’s not a valid refutation. The vaccines are fairly new, and it’s plausible that a few people could have side effects that weren’t previously recorded. The media argument amounted to “We never heard of it before, so it couldn’t have happened.”
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Disagreement isn’t refutation

Websites with an agenda to promote will claim that someone has “refuted” a claim when all the person has done is express a contrary view, with or without supporting evidence.

Refuting a claim or argument means showing that it’s invalid. It doesn’t require proving that the contrary position is true, but it requires thoroughly knocking the props out from under a claim. Here are some ways to refute an assertion:
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Beware of fake statistics 1

Some research I recently did for an article turned up a statistic that would have made a nice centerpiece: 60% of small businesses that experience cyberattacks go out of business within six months! If I were a hack writer, I could just have run with it; it’s “confirmed” on plenty of websites. But it smelled phony.

First, what exactly is it counting? It doesn’t even say “successful” cyberattacks. Let’s assume it means that, though. Almost every business falls victim to some malware. The consequences can be small or huge. It might contact a server that no longer exists and do nothing. It might attempt to encrypt files for ransomware but fail. It might mine for cryptocurrency, send spam, or try to enlarge a botnet. Those are all bad but won’t usually destroy the business.

Second, how much of the correlation is causation? Small businesses have high mortality rates in general. It just isn’t plausible that cyberattacks are wiping out huge numbers of small companies.
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The researcher’s guide to beating the search engines 1

If you’ve ever tried to research a difficult topic on Google, DuckDuckGo, Bing, or any of the other major search engines, you know what a battle it is. You don’t just get irrelevant results, you get the feeling the search engine is working against you. Instead of matching your keywords, it returns matches for vaguely similar spellings. Instead of matching all your search terms, it gives you popular pages that match just one. You may start to think the search engines are conspiring against you, and in a sense you’re right.

Why the search engines fight you

Here’s the secret: Search engines think you’re stupid. They think you can’t construct a proper search and they have to “help” you by guessing your real intent. Statistically, this isn’t so unreasonable. Most people have no idea how to construct a search string. They can’t spell. Search engines have dumbed themselves down to the level of these people. This is great if you can’t remember the spelling of a name and you’re looking for popular articles, but it’s murder when you’re trying to get an answer to a difficult query.
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