Commentary


Gallup doesn’t understand set theory

According to a Gallup Poll article, “Less than a third of Americans say they would be willing to vote for someone nominated by their party who is over the age of 80 or has been charged with a felony or convicted of a felony by a jury.” If that’s true and Trump and Biden are the major-party nominees in 2024, then two-thirds of Americans will sit out the election for that reason alone.

Is that what the poll actually shows? The article goes on to say, “The poll addressed the issues of felonies and candidate age with separate questions each asked of about half of the poll’s respondents.” That makes it impossible to draw the conclusion stated at the top of the article. It’s an issue of set overlap.
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“Too many notes, Mozart”

Upon hearing Mozart’s Singspiel The Abduction from the Seraglio, Emperor Joseph II is alleged to have said, “Too many notes.” The claim increased in popularity when Peter Schaffer put those words in his mouth in the travesty Amadeus. Quotations are tricky things, though. If I gratuitously claim someone said something, how do you know they didn’t? It’s the old issue of proving a negative.

The quotation, or something like it, has a source that long predates Schaffer. It’s the 1798 biography of Mozart by Franz Xaver Niemetschek. The full title is Leben des K.K. Kapellmeisters Wolfgang Gottlieb Mozart nach Originalquellen beschrieben (life of the music director Wolfgang Gottlieb Mozart, written based on original sources). The attribution given there is:
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Hostility as a tool of persuasion 1

A lot of people act as if mockery and denunciation are effective ways to convince others that they’re wrong. Not many of them, though, come out and endorse this principle. A Liberal Currents article called “Deradicalizing the Center” offers qualified support for it, though, and it’s not just a rant. It contains a lot of good thinking. I’d like to take a look at it to see what the author claims and argues.
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Grammarly is discontinuing desktop apps

It’s been a bad February for desktop applications. Two that I use a lot are going away. Twilio Authy, used for two-factor authentication, will not be supported on the desktop after March 19, and it may or may not work at all after that. People who don’t plan for it may find themselves temporarily locked out of accounts that use it for 2FA. On Macs with the Apple processor, the iOS version of the application apparently works, though Twilio hasn’t certified it for the Macintosh. I got it running on my Mac without problems, and I’ve used it for a few days. It works, though its user interface is distinctively inferior on a computer with a keyboard and mouse.

Be careful, though. There are fake apps taking advantage of the confusion; as I’m writing this, there’s a app called “Authhy” (with two h’s) on the App store, which I’m effectively certain is a Trojan horse. I can’t find any way to report it to Apple.

More relevant to readers of this blog, Grammarly is discontinuing its desktop application. According to the notice when I run my app, it will stop working on March 18. It suggests that users go to its website to check their writing.
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The Hugo cover-up

It’s out in the open now: Legitimate Hugo Award candidates were disqualified because of Chinese censorship. A collection of internal email, posted on Document Cloud, shows that the committee reviewed “anything of a sensitive political nature.” Dave McCarty was specific about the reasons:

In addition to the regular technical review, as we are happening in China and the *laws* we operate under are different … we need to highlight anything of a sensitive political nature in the work. [Ellipses in the original]

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The Tianwen project

File 770 has a fascinating article, “Decoding the Tianwen Project”, about the Chinese government’s aims to achieve a dominant position in the science fiction world. The piece is “posted anonymously to protect the author’s identity, as the author is part of the Chinese diaspora who occasionally travels to China.”

China has already engaged in censorship outside its borders through its print shops. It pressured Disney into killing nearly all the distribution of Kundun, which presents the Dalai Lama favorably and Mao unfavorably. A CNN article says China has “the world’s largest known online disinformation operation.”
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New Hampshire bill seeks to mandate book rating system

A bill before the New Hampshire legislature, Senate Bill 523, is a frontal attack on school libraries in the state and the vendors that provide books to them. The bill is sponsored by State Senator Kevin Avard. It’s the kind of lunacy you’d expect in Kansas or Texas, not New Hampshire.

It would set up a bounty system for bringing complaints against material which is allegedly “harmful to minors.” Anyone claiming to be aggrieved under the bill’s terms would be able to sue for damages. A person bringing a successful suit would be guaranteed a minimum payout of $1,000. What Avard is trying to set up isn’t just a way to remove inappropriate books but a way to incentivize gratuitous challenges.
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Human rights issues with a Kampala Worldcon

As fans energetically discuss the aftermath of the Chengdu Worldcon, some are thinking about the risks of future Worldcons in countries with a bad record on free speech and human rights. There are some issues with the UK, which is hosting this year’s convention, but it’s too late to change it. Let’s look ahead to the bid for Kampala in 2028.

There’s never been a Worldcon in Africa, and that helps to make the idea attractive. The bid website talks about Uganda’s literary history:
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Obituary for a newspaper

For the past six years, a newspaper called Carriage Towne News has arrived in my mailbox every week. The next one, scheduled to arrive on February 1, will be the last. The lead article in this week’s paper explains:

The Carriage Towne News — a free weekly newspaper dependent on small local ads and a wrapper for advertising circulars — will publish its final edition Thursday, Feb. 1. …
 
Financial support for the paper has seriously eroded in recent times as the critical revenue from advertising content dwindled while newsprint, production and mail distribution costs continued to increase.
 
Unfortunately, those factors combined to make it economically prohibitive to continue publication and direct marketing of the paper through mailed distribution to 26,000 southern New Hampshire households.

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A disturbing cease & desist order in New Hampshire

A few weeks ago, the New Hampshire Attorney General issued a cease and desist order to the National Democratic Committee, claiming that it had made “false, deceptive, and misleading” statements in violation of New Hampshire law. The statements in question noted that any delegates chosen in the New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary won’t be accepted at the party’s national convention, and therefore the primary is “meaningless.” Violation of the cited law is a felony.

This is disturbing in at least two ways. First, the Democratic National Committee isn’t a New Hampshire organization. It isn’t subject to New Hampshire law. The AG’s office seems to be saying it can enforce its law anywhere in the country, maybe anywhere in the world.
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